Dein erstes Forum » at No. 3 overall, at best.Lets go further. Even wi

129-100. Did you watch that?(More importantly, did you pick up?Jonathon Simmons?)Its just one game. A little more than 1 percent of our season. Lest we forget, we are playing fantasy basketball.The Golden State Warriors could go 42-40 or 81-1. In the big picture, some early-season struggles -- including Tuesdays thumping at the hands of the San Antonio Spurs?-- are not going to affect?Stephen Curry?and Kevin Durants seasonlong offensive load.On paper? Durant was just fine with 27 points and 10 rebounds.Draymond Green? Better than fine with 18 points, 12 rebounds, six assists and two blocks.And if youre rostering Curry? The enterprise wasnt a total loss: 26 points, three 3-pointers and four assists in 34 minutes.(Klay Thompson and the?Zaza Pachulia-led consortium at center were another story. No Andrew Bogut made a big one-game difference on the boards.)So Im not here to panic.I am hot take-less.Im just here to tell you that youve all been absolutely, historically, metaphysically dead wrong regarding Currys value.His Average Draft Position of 3.7 proves it.Last season, Curry completed the greatest season in the history of fantasy basketball.(Full disclosure: I told you to look into trading him, based on the fact that no one -- no one -- had ever kept up his torrid first-half shooting pace during a full 82-game campaign. And while I was technically correct -- Curry did drop a little over the second half -- he still posted the best fantasy season ever.)Curry dropkicked the Player Rater with an aggregate score of 23.60, almost five full points ahead of his closest competition (James Harden at 18.83).Thats 25 percent more production than No. 2 (Harden), 33 percent more than Currys newest teammate, Durant, and 45 percent better than Durants latest ex-teammate,?Russell Westbrook.Yet as of opening night, Curry had dropped to No. 3 overall (3.7 ADP), well behind Westbrook (1.9) and Harden (2.2). Curry is closer to sliding behind Karl-Anthony Towns (4.6) and Durant (5.0) for the fifth spot.Youre saying that Curry will fall from 23.60 player rater points to about 18 points. Oh, youre not? Because thats what a drop to No. 3 would look like!Youre saying Harden and Westbrook will rise closer toward the 20 player rater-point range, while Curry slides to about 18. On paper, at first glance, the dynamics of your fantasy valuation are simple to grasp.To wit: You remove last seasons No. 3 overall player (Durant) from a high-usage partnership with last years No. 4 overall player (Westbrook).Then you combine Durant with last seasons No. 1 player (Curry), realizing theyll have to share the ball a bit more than Durant and Westbrook did for Durant to be happy.Following this logic, Durant will have to vulture touches from Curry, since Durants usage rate (30.6) more than doubles the small forward he is displacing (Harrison Barnes (14.9).Yet on the NBAs opening night (a one-game sample size, but still), Curry attempted a robust 18 shots. In 2015-16, he averaged 20.2 attempts per game.Curry launched 10 3-pointers on Tuesday and only made three. In 2015-16, Curry averaged 11.2 3-point attempts and made 5.1. For just about any other NBA player, three 3-pointers per game would be phenomenal.But even averaging three 3-pointers, Curry could still be our fantasy MVP. So far, the evidence that Curry will slide from fantasys top spot is purely anecdotal.Lets look at the arguments aimed against him.1. Durant will steal Currys offenseThis assumption lies in the misguided notion that Curry is a volume-dependent player.Which ignores that even if Curry was a volume-dependent player, hes unlikely to suffer more than a 10 percent to 15 percent hit in the volume-based fantasy categories Durant is liable to vulture from his point guard (points, 3-pointers).I base this on what has happened in past superteam conflagrations. My favorite comp is LeBron Decision 1.0: How?LeBron James joining the Heat --?Dwyane Wades Heat -- depressed Wades statistical output.Its a similar situation. The combining of two top talents at a career peak. (As opposed to LeBron Decision 2.0, where the surrounding stars -- Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love -- had other issues fighting their production).Wade suffered only a 5 percent drop in aggregate fantasy value.2009-10 Wade: 26.6 PTS, 19.6 FGA, 6.5 AST, 4.8 REB, 1.8 STL, 1.1 BLK, 0.9 3PT, .476 FG% 2010-11 Wade: 25.5 PTS, 18.2 FGA, 4.6 AST, 6.4 REB, 1.5 STL, 1.1 BLK, 0.8 3PT, .500 FG%Wade attempted fewer shots, but LeBrons presence created more space and drove up his field goal percentage. He only scored 1.1 points per game less. Wades assists dropped, but his rebounds rose.Take a look at Currys line from last year. Heres what a 5 percent volume drop would look like across the board.2015-16 Curry: 30.1 PTS, 20.2 FGA, 6.7 AST, 5.4 REB, 2.1 STL, 0.2 BLK, 5.1 3PT, .504 FG% 2016-17 Curry: 28.6 PTS, 19.2 FGA, 6.4 AST, 5.1 REB, 2.0 STL, 0.2 BLK, 4.8 3PT, .504 FG%Thats still most likely a No. 1 overall in fantasy stat line. Versatile, well-matched superstars figure out how to mesh. And Curry/Durant is supremely well-matched. (By the way, this valuation roughly equivocates with ESPNs projected line, which has Curry ranked No. 4 overall. I respectfully disagree that this valuation would leave him behind Harden, Westbrook and Towns.)2. Loss of touches will cleave out a hunk of Currys fantasy valueA lot of people fixate on the boffo scoring numbers (first in fantasy points scored production). But Currys fantasy portfolio is so diversified that its hard to keep up with all of his strengths.Curry was fantasys top steals producer in 2015-16 (3.67 player rater points). He was fantasys top free throw performer (2.84 player rater points). He was ninth in field goal percentage production (2.55 points),?while destroying every 3-point production metric in sight. He was eighth in assist production. Among point guards, he was third in rebounding.In the negative column? He didnt block a whole lot of shots.Curry generates so much value via percentages, steals, assists and rebounds (relative to his position) that even a 20 percent drop in shot attempts (and its accompanying drop in field goal percentage production, since that stat depends on volume of shot attempts), points scored and 3-pointers wouldnt take his No. 1 status.And before you rail some more about Durant vs. Barnes, remember that the Warriors had to sacrifice some depth to fit KD under the cap.Even after a 20 percent drop, Curry would still have 20.95 player rater points. Which would still beat 2015-16 Harden by over two player rater points.For sake of argument, lets leave Curry at 20.9 player rater points.3. Harden will gain value under Mike DAntoniEveryone gains value under Mike DAntoni. Tom Gugliotta is still gaining value under Mike DAntoni, and he retired 11 years ago.And Im statistically salivating about the Harden playing point guard. DAntonis system is PG-driven. Harden will absolutely hit career highs within the new?Houston Rockets?coachs pace-inflated system.But the truth is that Harden doesnt have much further to rise. Hardens fantasy production is a little more volume-driven than Currys. A small rise in assists isnt going to accompany boosts across the board ... especially in efficiency-driven categories. And triple that thought in a turnover league.Hardens field goal percentage isnt going to rise. Outside of a 20 percent increase in assist production, his other volume-based numbers might see a 10 percent bump at best.Lets be generous and factor in a 10 percent bump in aggregate value. Absolute best case, Harden lands around 20.6 player rater points, which would still be behind our 20 percent volume-devalued Curry.4. Westbrook would gain value without DurantNo Durant. Contact year. Westbrook will run wild.But how much wilder can Westbrook run than he did in 2015-16? Lets go to our fantasy projections, a sort of mélange between his 2014-15 (injured KD-inflated) and 2015-16 (more efficient) stats.2016-17 Westbrook: 28.7 PTS, 9.5 AST, 8.3 REB, 1.9 STL, 0.3 BLK, 1.4 3PTNice volume, but Westbrooks 3-point and field goal percentage production will still lack a No. 1 overall panache.Like Harden, volume dependency lowers your fantasy floor.Trading an assist and a some field goal percentage for five extra points and a half-rebound per game will not push Westbrook past our 20-percent-depressed Curry.These projected numbers would nudge Westbrook into the 18-player rater-point range.Which would still leave him at No. 3 overall, at best.Lets go further. Even with an ultra-generous, somewhat-historic 20 percent rise in overall aggregate value? Which would basically leave him averaging a triple-double?Westbrook would land at 19.5 player rater points.Which would still be No. 3 overall at best.ConclusionFine. Lets bump up Harden 20 percent overall too. Which is less likely to happen than a 20 percent Curry drop.That would give Harden about 22.4 player rater points.Even factoring the most generous of pro-Harden, anti-Curry statistical projections? Curry still has a punchers chance at finishing No. 1 overall.Given his second-year status, Towns might have a better chance of displacing Curry.Heck. Given a higher word allotment, I could marshal an argument that Curry and Durant could finish 1-2 on the Player Rater.Dont get snowed by volume. Pure volume is for amateurs. Without an accompanying bump in efficiency, usage can only carry you so far.And in a turnover league? The discussion is expunged. Any pro-Harden/Westbrook argument loses 99 percent of its oxygen.In the end?Youre being very, very mean to Steph Curry.